South American Leagues · resolved market
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1510c77673cb249fed15b6283916e0c9b789f25536d285cb9dcc22061dbb2ca5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,734
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,044
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,734 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 55c | 20,000$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 45c | 19,995$8,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,997.25 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 41c | 2,780$1,149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.5 | 506 | 61.3%310 W · 196 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 48c | 2,707$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.49 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed No | 57c | 2,409$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,028.08 | 53 | 64.2%34 W · 19 L | +9.7wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Yes | 59c | 2,340$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380.55 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,427$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.13 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 48c | 1,271$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.3 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb52b…b156backed No | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 49c | 965$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.85 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 43c | 469.83$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.88 | 266 | 59.8%159 W · 107 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 57c | 333$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.81 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 50c | 302$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 52c | 280$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.72 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Yes | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 53c | 154.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 120 | 45.8%55 W · 65 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 54c | 152.53$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.36 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 50c | 125$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbc…b007backed Yes | 59c | 118.66$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 56c | 74.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x855d…349fbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Yes | 40c | 70.18$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -14.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…3914backed Yes | 60c | 60.6$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…770cbacked Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 55c | 49.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…7d12backed Yes | 58c | 48.28$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 40cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -8.8wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 46c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 124 | 64.5%80 W · 44 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -3.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Yes | 57c | 26.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc668…f670backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424b…ed19backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4e…b172backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-08?this page
- Will Red Bull Bragantino win on 2025-11-08?Yes won
- Will São Paulo FC vs. Red Bull Bragantino end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.