Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Execration - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x152f970398f415e66bf55b4abc82a08f09f481ee731411a3fb322a9769a7328d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZof MOUZ, Execration
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Execration | 26c | 5,555$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.3 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Execration | 33c | 5,387$1,773 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,773.4 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed MOUZ | 74c | 4,122$3,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.62 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked MOUZ | 74c | 1,519$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.85 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…c209backed MOUZ | 70c | 1,431$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.86 | 128 | 51.6%66 W · 62 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Execration | 31c | 1,343$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.65 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked MOUZ | 67c | 960.89$646 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.56 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ | 67c | 749.75$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.42 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed MOUZ | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 70c | 692.57$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.58 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Execration | 30c | 646.86$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.06 | 328 | 54.9%180 W · 148 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 65c | 546.82$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.39 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed MOUZ | 66c | 530$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.2 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ | 66c | 524$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.16 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed MOUZ | 67c | 448.68$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.68 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe999…12bdbacked MOUZ | 71c | 425.02$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.02 | 181 | 56.4%102 W · 79 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed MOUZ | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed MOUZ | 69c | 290$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed MOUZ | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ | 71c | 182$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Execration | 30c | 178$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Execration | 33c | 160$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 360 | 54.4%196 W · 164 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed MOUZ | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b84…48e3backed Execration | 16c | 145.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Execration | 23c | 57.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked MOUZ | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked MOUZ | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce16…d66fbacked Execration | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Execration | 38c | 37.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 139 | 46%64 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed MOUZ | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed MOUZ | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed MOUZ | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd988…fd9dbacked MOUZ | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 58cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d69…1dc4backed MOUZ | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Execration - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Execration (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BMOUZ won
- Dota 2: MOUZ vs Execration - Game 2 WinnerMOUZ won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.