Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15325c059fcf8c0ba8ab8a861ce551c5c2d87ad6fb6ae6b2655b38da7f74c18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,081
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 23c | 2,523$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.81 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Up | 55c | 1,500$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 50c | 1,300$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.99 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd9…e02cbacked Up | 80c | 1,200$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Down | 32c | 1,187$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.52 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Up | 74c | 1,153$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.88 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Down | 37c | 1,007$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.82 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a35…7a58backed Up | 77c | 566.49$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Up | 54c | 552.21$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.55 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Down | 44c | 531.39$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.16 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedcc…4d5ebacked Down | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 152 | 21.7%33 W · 119 L | +9.0wins | +0.06per pick | 16cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Down | 30c | 341$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.3 | 305 | 34.8%106 W · 199 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 79c | 290.5$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 54c | 280.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.94 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Up | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Up | 80c | 183.45$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.23 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…e854backed Down | 25c | 144$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked Down | 29c | 132.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1473…e5bcbacked Up | 79c | 114.44$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Up | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Up | 57c | 84.59$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.73 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 39c | 67.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fd…bd3cbacked Up | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…b953backed Down | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 47c | 51.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Up | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Up | 41c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…c3bcbacked Up | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 117 | 36.8%43 W · 74 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…e241backed Up | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Down | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Up | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Up | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Up | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.