Tennis · resolved market
ITF Tauste: Aryan Shah vs Alejo Sanchez Quilez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x154a0c79cde3716ec3da6ab7d39ff0382bda8d72b3ef865eb8ab1d339b5dbe04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alejo Sanchez Quilezof Aryan Shah, Alejo Sanchez Quilez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Aryan Shah | 16c | 6,061$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.83 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…0ff7backed Aryan Shah | 5c | 2,022$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +122%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Aryan Shah | 13c | 941.43$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.91 | 3,661 | 45.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Aryan Shah | 5c | 402.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 194 | 11.9%23 W · 171 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Aryan Shah | 21c | 307.48$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.56 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Aryan Shah | 11c | 305.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.56 | 1,042 | 36.5%380 W · 662 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Aryan Shah | 12c | 300$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Aryan Shah | 18c | 294.49$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 261 | 31.4%82 W · 179 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 72c | 258.28$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.99 | 883 | 58.2%514 W · 369 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Aryan Shah | 23c | 199.46$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.34 | 705 | 37.6%265 W · 440 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96d…20bebacked Aryan Shah | 20c | 177.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 482 | 14.1%68 W · 414 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 70c | 154.76$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.87 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Aryan Shah | 12c | 131.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Aryan Shah | 23c | 128.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 375 | 47.2%177 W · 198 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Aryan Shah | 10c | 116.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 877 | 41.3%362 W · 515 L | -14.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Aryan Shah | 22c | 106.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb524…0808backed Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 156 | 57.1%89 W · 67 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…af4fbacked Aryan Shah | 23c | 98.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 277 | 24.9%69 W · 208 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Aryan Shah | 25c | 80.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5505…aa44backed Aryan Shah | 40c | 77.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 922 | 37.4%345 W · 577 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013f…ca85backed Aryan Shah | 17c | 73.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Aryan Shah | 32c | 73$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Aryan Shah | 15c | 65.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -14.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Aryan Shah | 25c | 65.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 690 | 47%324 W · 366 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d10…b3d0backed Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 68c | 57.52$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 821 | 59.4%488 W · 333 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…da75backed Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 78c | 50.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 351 | 64.7%227 W · 124 L | +20.8wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Aryan Shah | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 119 | 29.4%35 W · 84 L | -17.1wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 221 | 52%115 W · 106 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…3a3fbacked Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 65c | 47.45$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 72c | 41.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 277 | 49.1%136 W · 141 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Aryan Shah | 34c | 39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Aryan Shah | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 474 | 47.9%227 W · 247 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…473ebacked Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 63c | 23.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…0111backed Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 76c | 17.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.