Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15504d6141e161ea9251b452de929e3464ee095d35ae2e636cc6eaafc6017a0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x72a6…cfefbacked Under | 54c | 939.55$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 7c | 627.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 47c | 559$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 14c | 372$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over | 78c | 314.36$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.34 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 39c | 234.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.46 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 77c | 212.23$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 43c | 183.21$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.32 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 70c | 172.2$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.36 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 22c | 137.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 43c | 116.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cee…5a4fbacked Over | 49c | 110$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Under | 22c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Over | 78c | 57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 24c | 55.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 53c | 46.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 42.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.86 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 69c | 41.66$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 44c | 41.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Over | 79c | 35.44$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 75c | 30.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 45c | 28.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 55c | 27.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f2…2512backed Over | 48c | 27.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.