Mls · resolved market
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d94954094cc0d9cc51c8cc6d304e94794d159d2039a69669df533fbe8f7bc01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,659
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,659 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 65c | 2,741$1,787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,787.01 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 34c | 2,017$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331.97 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Over | 39c | 1,178$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 937.92$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.65 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Under | 46c | 852.36$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.22 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 61c | 491.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +9.3wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 39c | 377.29$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.57 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76e4…febcbacked Over | 62c | 322.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…a9a8backed Over | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 76 | 68.4%52 W · 24 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5976…7f3fbacked Over | 71c | 239.45$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 24c | 234.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.59 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 80c | 188.19$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.55 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01ee…6ab0backed Over | 55c | 183.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.12 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 180.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.37 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 39c | 179.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -8.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 35c | 175.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.94 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…04a7backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6945…873dbacked Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 59c | 153.81$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.06 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 34c | 133.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 52c | 133$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 44c | 114.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.87 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 48c | 92.96$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 66c | 90$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Under | 42c | 87$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 21c | 86.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 57c | 74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 43c | 74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0655…faf8backed Over | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 57c | 61.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 59c | 61.61$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 37c | 58.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 55 | 69.1%38 W · 17 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…a035backed Over | 71c | 50.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Under | 76c | 45.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 39c | 39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 41 | 68.3%28 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8de7…61c0backed Over | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 39c | 32.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 70c | 29.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f13…aeb1backed Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecbb…a8c2backed Over | 71c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 55c | 23.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Minnesota United FC won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-1.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
- Spread: Minnesota United FC (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.