Stocks · resolved market
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155e6ca34d0ec7d6d807f16fe22938c49617f25ee21704b296201d18abb90253
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,739 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9317…75d9backed Yes | 5c | 13,500$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 29c | 653.83$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 14c | 647.91$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.16 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 145.64$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.22 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 29c | 103.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 30c | 78.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 32c | 68.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 34c | 46.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.32per pick | 41cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 34c | 36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 69c | 30.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 67c | 30.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 63c | 30.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ad…6866backed No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 67c | 24.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +9.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4169…98e9backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e0…69e3backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 64c | 19.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…c3c9backed No | 77c | 17.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $100-$110 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?this page
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $120-$130 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $70-$80 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $80-$90 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?No won
- Will Netflix (NFLX) close at $90-$100 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 2 – Mar 6?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.