Champions League · resolved market
Will AC Milan beat Real Madrid?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x156a6c596dd8f215ac4c250afe9e3472ee491c1dc0b1cd3dc9d8f3308a79b49d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b74…a4f4backed Yes | 14c | 3,000$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,580 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed No | 2c | 683$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 20c | 625$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.2 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306b…3ec5backed No | 46c | 617.26$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.04 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x834e…8015backed Yes | 80c | 573.1$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.62 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5433…0d50backed Yes | 60c | 442.72$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.09 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 45c | 308.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.47 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 28c | 272.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.41 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed No | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f5…07f1backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 53c | 224.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -30%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ee…4e1ebacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Yes | 50c | 170$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…1a5cbacked Yes | 15c | 166.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 25c | 164.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 80c | 158.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x664e…340abacked Yes | 80c | 158.95$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…a5e7backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x847f…08a5backed Yes | 15c | 135$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +172.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…8385backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 60c | 105$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7cc…4952backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4790…2dd7backed Yes | 15c | 94.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed Yes | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b4afbacked No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan beat Real Madrid?this page
- Will Real Madrid beat AC Milan?No won
- Will the match between Real Madrid and AC Milan end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.