Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x157641869fa4514fdec4d5a1d5fb9300b57f996c914052438a973bdb1098a59a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof L1ga Team, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e15…7531backed L1ga Team | 46c | 1,291$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.25 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 1,113$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5020…413fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 54c | 977.26$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.72 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked L1ga Team | 63c | 598.63$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.49 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa5…01b3backed L1ga Team | 47c | 206$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +102.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe59…0d2ebacked Nemiga Gaming | 55c | 199.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 162 | 43.2%70 W · 92 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed Nemiga Gaming | 59c | 180.63$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.31 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe303…401abacked L1ga Team | 70c | 159.74$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked L1ga Team | 41c | 158.2$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.34 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked L1ga Team | 63c | 135.73$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d1…beddbacked L1ga Team | 45c | 121.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed L1ga Team | 45c | 69.26$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed L1ga Team | 42c | 54.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.88 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked L1ga Team | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 772 | 56.5%436 W · 336 L | +30.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: L1GA (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.