Bundesliga · resolved market
SC Preußen Münster vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15a165b2ec655501989c5e815925640c3f6ffd03782195e70922224f4ceddbb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,743
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8566…c626backed Over | 45c | 15,915$7,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,161.69 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 12,606$7,352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,254.64 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Under | 55c | 9,514$5,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,281.51 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 34c | 4,350$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,498.8 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Under | 46c | 1,946$895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050.78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc9…f0b3backed Over | 36c | 1,115$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 60c | 825.65$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.43 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 50c | 567.46$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.73 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Over | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 129 | 52.7%68 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 498.5$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.73 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Over | 37c | 492.11$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 62c | 450$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x040b…f8a0backed Over | 50c | 411.6$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 50c | 300$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 50c | 299.38$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 50c | 278.4$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…41edbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd2…084dbacked Under | 61c | 184.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a4…f0c0backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 39c | 152.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 56c | 148.53$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 50c | 131.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 42c | 123.81$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ea33backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd235…6eebbacked Over | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 50c | 84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78a7…7a6cbacked Over | 49c | 71.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 33c | 68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 24c | 62.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Under | 56c | 47$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 48c | 38.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf628…ba6fbacked Over | 36c | 31.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Over | 48c | 31.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a1…2254backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 59c | 21.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…683fbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…f300backed Under | 58c | 17.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Preußen Münster vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5this page
- SC Preußen Münster vs. VfL Bochum: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 3.5Under won
- SC Preußen Münster vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: VfL Bochum (-1.5)SC Preußen Münster won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.