Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15b2bc62b0889fae3ee0ea24970834ecd2c2219b36827c7f1ac7e3e07e12bffb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 3c | 943.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 905.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 788.11$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 6c | 769.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.24 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 492.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.97 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 8c | 437.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 6c | 426.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 22c | 362.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 16c | 355$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 11c | 340.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 10c | 292.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 268.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…67a9backed Yes | 20c | 252.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 11c | 222.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 200$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 9c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 11c | 198.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 28c | 193.26$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.46 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 8c | 192.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes | 24c | 189.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 7c | 157.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 154$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37ab…931fbacked Yes | 21c | 145.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 32c | 119$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb400…4e85backed Yes | 20c | 118$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 14c | 117$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 22c | 113.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 24c | 111.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 10c | 100.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 79c | 97.56$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef57…827dbacked No | 73c | 75.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 71.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 24.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe584…85d4backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 78c | 13.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 80c | 12.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.51 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.