Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdab8cf56f2d8f0b82011c0844aae8456103950f885c76a0897c11c3293a97ee2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 0c | 31,596$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc778…8d85backed Yes | 4c | 5,493$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.37 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 76c | 420.26$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.26 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 74c | 349.17$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.45 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 12c | 284.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 71c | 275.32$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.36 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 271.66$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 25c | 242.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 241.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 16c | 177.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 16c | 163$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 154$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed No | 74c | 149.99$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 132.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 67c | 130.42$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 122.34$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 75c | 116.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 17c | 103.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 99.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…c3efbacked Yes | 25c | 98.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 32c | 97.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 12c | 89.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 73c | 82.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 29c | 73.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 71.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 18c | 71.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d97…66f8backed Yes | 34c | 70.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…ee84backed Yes | 34c | 70.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 22c | 67.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…f5c3backed Yes | 21c | 63.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 23c | 61.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2a…d42ebacked Yes | 33c | 60.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 38c | 52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 79c | 50.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 28c | 49.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 32c | 45.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 44.62$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2a…f1d6backed Yes | 39c | 40.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf465…8a3bbacked No | 75c | 38.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 40 | 80%32 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 67c | 34.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…728abacked Yes | 35c | 31.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked No | 60c | 30.45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…ee01backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 80 | 72.5%58 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…60f7backed No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 28.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…34d2backed No | 73c | 27.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 66 | 74.2%49 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 25.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9dd…1870backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed No | 77c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 73cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 21.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3a…f171backed No | 80c | 17.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 75cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3e…bd35backed No | 78c | 17.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…c6f5backed No | 78c | 16.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 71c | 14.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 77c | 14.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.