Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9cdd759b290a3eed60216d541a9e1efa66ecd5241b0d57739db99bd3ac65f71f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,938
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,374
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,938 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x690b…9145backed No | 2c | 17,500$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…728abacked No | 3c | 5,790$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0231…45d0backed No | 1c | 1,256$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 121 | 24.8%30 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 7c | 1,180$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.45 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 22c | 949.96$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed No | 2c | 775.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -80.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4107…c4c5backed No | 2c | 594.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 76c | 450$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.65 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 69c | 229.71$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.73 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 52c | 201.35$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.79 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 172.46$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.96 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 80c | 165.3$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.16 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 50c | 154$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 49c | 150.22$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 7c | 143.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 63c | 139.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67dc…2c52backed No | 50c | 120.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 104.15$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 49c | 104.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.57 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 102.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…ff71backed No | 50c | 99.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…06bcbacked Yes | 24c | 97.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.39 | 91 | 35.2%32 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 78c | 95.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 54c | 94.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 76c | 93.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…a07bbacked Yes | 65c | 88.53$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 71c | 82.67$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 14c | 81.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76ae…99f1backed Yes | 74c | 77.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 62c | 76.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 27c | 73.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3df9…2bddbacked No | 42c | 71.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 23.6%45 W · 146 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 70c | 64.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 35c | 64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 73c | 62.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 51c | 61.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 43c | 56.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3889…24a5backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4e…9487backed Yes | 65c | 52.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 68c | 50.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 51c | 49.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed No | 33c | 49.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 75c | 48.88$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 49c | 46.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc627…5d3dbacked No | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 77c | 43.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed No | 36c | 42.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 50c | 40.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 44c | 36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 74c | 35.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2517…87d9backed Yes | 52c | 35.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e2…a410backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 47c | 31.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 33c | 31.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf413…3f6cbacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…b54abacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…4252backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 47c | 28.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbe…e620backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b36…c0e7backed Yes | 50c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dda…6e0dbacked Yes | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x365a…0088backed No | 54c | 21.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43e8…af56backed No | 70c | 20.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b66…3907backed Yes | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.63 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 75c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C or higher on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 5°C or below on March 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.