Tennis · resolved market
Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Alejandro Tabilo vs Yi Zhou
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15d3f57426fe2844a09f5121c9293003e98b0e8e63a70765ee9bf01bbd0d0ac3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tabiloof Tabilo, Zhou
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,894
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,894 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Zhou | 23c | 3,368$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.26 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Tabilo | 59c | 1,849$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.51 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Zhou | 41c | 1,300$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Tabilo | 72c | 867.17$629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.57 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Zhou | 45c | 353.45$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.54 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72b2…ffcabacked Tabilo | 57c | 352$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Zhou | 33c | 243.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.27 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Zhou | 42c | 242$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tabilo | 27c | 239.13$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.44 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7cb…e02fbacked Tabilo | 56c | 199.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.99 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Zhou | 42c | 179.9$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.86 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Zhou | 41c | 136$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.76 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Tabilo | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Zhou | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Tabilo | 53c | 90.53$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Zhou | 42c | 71.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Zhou | 56c | 71.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc345…2c35backed Tabilo | 64c | 54.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…da98backed Tabilo | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 111 | 65.8%73 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c22…70a0backed Zhou | 45c | 49.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Zhou | 41c | 48.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Zhou | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Tabilo | 56c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 257 | 43.6%112 W · 145 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83f…b17ebacked Tabilo | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Tabilo | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Tabilo | 57c | 36.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Tabilo | 56c | 35.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…806abacked Tabilo | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Tabilo | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Tabilo | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x077a…ec51backed Zhou | 58c | 19.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Tabilo | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hong Kong Tennis Open, Qualification: Alejandro Tabilo vs Yi Zhouthis page
- Set Handicap: Tabilo (-1.5) vs Zhou (+1.5)Zhou won
- Tabilo vs. Zhou: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.