Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15e815b52dc197566fde15b193ad5c939db9434e40358ad61752b4a920f4cb53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 770.03$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.91 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 49c | 359.67$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 43c | 168.4$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…746abacked Yes | 48c | 149.83$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 61c | 145.02$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 48c | 112.71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 104.91$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 39c | 102.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.39 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 98.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.51 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 69c | 91.76$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 43c | 87.59$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 42c | 82.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.86 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 48c | 69.03$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 38c | 67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 60c | 59$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 48c | 57.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 61c | 56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 53.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 58c | 51.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…58d4backed No | 49c | 48.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 47.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 40c | 41.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 40.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f42…adbebacked Yes | 67c | 36.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 78c | 35.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 56c | 32.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 46c | 31.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked Yes | 39c | 31.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 50c | 31.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 50c | 30.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 65c | 28.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked Yes | 61c | 23.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked Yes | 59c | 21.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 69c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 53c | 18.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae3…8262backed No | 67c | 15.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.