Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4dcda312b0418a876ca464b7989c0bc4c80f28b7b4673e8fea0bb2f84c7c115d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,766
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,766 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 30c | 444.13$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.53 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 56c | 248.71$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 64c | 218.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.48 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 162.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 146.74$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…abd9backed Yes | 37c | 134.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 35c | 126.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 28c | 121.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 99.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 42c | 98.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 98.12$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 27c | 85.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 80.34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 25c | 79.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 66c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 37c | 76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.87 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 21c | 75.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 30c | 74.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 25c | 72.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9e…8d54backed No | 72c | 70.34$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 276 | 69.2%191 W · 85 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 48c | 68.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 77c | 67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 65.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.83 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 20c | 59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 30c | 57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 42c | 53.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 53$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 78c | 52.4$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 46.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 41.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.67 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 58c | 28.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 50c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 60c | 22.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…746abacked No | 77c | 22.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Yes | 71c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 72c | 20.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 74c | 17.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…b25bbacked No | 77c | 16.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3c65backed No | 73c | 14.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 444 | 65.3%290 W · 154 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.