Bundesliga · resolved market
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16077aeff8e3738b17eb1a0e89f6d63adbf8dead0904edfbe1eb9163466c344a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 16c | 10,000$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf43d…1e75backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4d…de5abacked Yes | 17c | 1,813$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 17c | 1,365$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,249$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.78 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 17c | 1,175$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.49 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 18c | 896$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.28 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1257…d615backed Yes | 19c | 700$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b97…3f54backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 3c | 549.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e6…b6a5backed Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6100…f328backed Yes | 16c | 506.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc049…48abbacked Yes | 16c | 437.5$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 18c | 424$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.32 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Yes | 19c | 421.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d53…8a3ebacked Yes | 14c | 244.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 17c | 220.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 18c | 209.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…74e1backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35d…8a78backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4e…2917backed Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9f…1be8backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5151…4e57backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4597…272bbacked Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…d978backed Yes | 18c | 112.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…5555backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…82b5backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x001a…dbb5backed Yes | 14c | 81.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Yes | 14c | 77.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…15e5backed Yes | 16c | 76.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 17c | 74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 15c | 73.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 17c | 70$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…922ebacked Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 80c | 69.88$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7124…93eabacked Yes | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?Yes won
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.