Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd362173b7c07e492d7ceccedecb501f86376c168af9577eb26ecc7f2ec5c3799
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $200,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $198,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 11c | 22,155$2,408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,407.62 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 11c | 13,173$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.17 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ac…cb21backed Yes | 11c | 11,274$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.84 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Yes | 11c | 10,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c8…5471backed Yes | 11c | 9,241$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.56 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed Yes | 10c | 6,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.99 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x585c…f0a7backed Yes | 10c | 5,712$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.18 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 10c | 4,670$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.42 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 12c | 3,934$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.95 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,636$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 11c | 3,331$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.41 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Yes | 12c | 3,191$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.53 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacba…9256backed Yes | 11c | 3,000$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed Yes | 10c | 2,682$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.18 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 74 | 23%17 W · 57 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 9c | 1,903$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.44 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42b…41cfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…b79abacked Yes | 11c | 1,364$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Yes | 11c | 1,059$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.65 | 447 | 49.4%221 W · 226 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69fd…d3adbacked Yes | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa62d…92e0backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…1902backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3909…335fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 11c | 900$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee4…4b3ebacked Yes | 13c | 711.92$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1257…d615backed Yes | 12c | 700$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 11c | 599.98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…cf4bbacked Yes | 3c | 598.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x814c…7ffabacked Yes | 11c | 587.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 194 | 46.4%90 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef1…d333backed Yes | 8c | 520.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1271…a720backed Yes | 14c | 509.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe189…13fbbacked Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12c6…0691backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…ad9abacked Yes | 12c | 446.1$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Yes | 11c | 414.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fc…1511backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…2a61backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fca…6129backed Yes | 11c | 378.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Yes | 11c | 370$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c46…6a2abacked Yes | 5c | 355.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Yes | 11c | 333.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2718…c9c4backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf828…fca3backed Yes | 9c | 329.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.71 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Yes | 11c | 323.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…f470backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d53…8a3ebacked Yes | 8c | 270.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes | 5c | 266.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…1068backed Yes | 11c | 221.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x566e…1340backed Yes | 11c | 200.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 11c | 199.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdebb…eedbbacked Yes | 7c | 180$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 9c | 168.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 149 | 34.9%52 W · 97 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Yes | 10c | 166.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Yes | 12c | 166.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd642…c499backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf99d…f867backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a10…7843backed Yes | 14c | 143.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Yes | 12c | 136.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Yes | 12c | 116.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…7ab1backed Yes | 15c | 113.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 10c | 110.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe351…e48dbacked Yes | 11c | 104.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 214 | 50%107 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed Yes | 11c | 90.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 149 | 42.3%63 W · 86 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Werder Bremen win on 2026-01-13?this page
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund vs. SV Werder Bremen end in a draw?No won
- Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-01-13?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.