Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x162332a1739ea9d9d8fe88682a9816295e026513a25531fadb949b03f6c44198
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,908
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,908 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 455.77$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.19 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 65c | 328.39$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.91 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 236.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 2,304 | 27%622 W · 1,682 L | -41.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 203.17$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 17c | 188.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 48c | 120$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 7,231 | 9.3%675 W · 6,556 L | -1,115.6wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 104.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 61c | 92.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 14c | 89.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 60c | 81.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 58c | 75.76$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 2,548 | 45.4%1,157 W · 1,391 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 73$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.45 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 37c | 60.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 58.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 19c | 57.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 37c | 57$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 56c | 55.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 1,554 | 56.7%881 W · 673 L | -83.6wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,301 | 32.9%428 W · 873 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…bde5backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 286 | 37.4%107 W · 179 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 59c | 49.6$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 34c | 41.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 10,848 | 37.5%4,070 W · 6,778 L | +432.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed Yes | 44c | 40.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed Yes | 44c | 40.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 38c | 39.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.33 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 633 | 49.9%316 W · 317 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 44c | 35.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 33.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa45d…93f1backed No | 56c | 31.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes | 37c | 28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 208 | 42.8%89 W · 119 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 56c | 26.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 60c | 26.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 3,620 | 53.2%1,925 W · 1,695 L | +81.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf0…d22cbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 41c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 40c | 24.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed No | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 350 | 50.3%176 W · 174 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 67c | 18.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 61c | 18.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x716b…9fcfbacked No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.26per pick | 70cpaid | -38%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…c9fdbacked No | 66c | 15.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.