Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x164d4bf018192a38d6de9301e53a5023ae3ed4c002955b06cd9d6df21f509e5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Yes | 45c | 14,595$6,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,563.93 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | +17.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 61c | 9,469$5,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,682.59 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 7c | 4,931$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.45 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 42c | 1,667$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.44 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 6c | 1,655$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 1,296$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.15 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Yes | 43c | 1,110$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.75 | 142 | 47.2%67 W · 75 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 42c | 911.59$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.03 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 42c | 911.58$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.03 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 42c | 907.95$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.77 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 42c | 846.46$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.14 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 4c | 838.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 42c | 827.34$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.27 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 42c | 592.19$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.76 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 68c | 582$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 42c | 556.41$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.15 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 32c | 527$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.64 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 64c | 497.49$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.93 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 43c | 469.63$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 42c | 300.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.63 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 71c | 298.05$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.43 | 487 | 68%331 W · 156 L | +69.2wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Yes | 50c | 228.3$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.3 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5d…2668backed Yes | 31c | 195.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 74c | 146.3$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 1,309 | 56.8%743 W · 566 L | +66.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 14c | 135.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Yes | 43c | 111.11$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed No | 58c | 104.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.73 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.5wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a26…033fbacked Yes | 37c | 88.92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Yes | 38c | 79.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Yes | 37c | 74.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 282 | 53.5%151 W · 131 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15bb…2033backed Yes | 43c | 71.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes | 36c | 66.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 198 | 56.1%111 W · 87 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked No | 74c | 65.14$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 66c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Yes | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 56.3%40 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 32c | 57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.01 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 61c | 48.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 65c | 41.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 165 | 61.2%101 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…51dabacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Yes | 34c | 33.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 101 | 60.4%61 W · 40 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 46c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 152 | 40.1%61 W · 91 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 40c | 26.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 246 | 56.9%140 W · 106 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033b…5e3fbacked Yes | 42c | 24.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 59c | 20.63$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.19per pick | 59cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed No | 63c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 62c | 20.01$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,117 | 46.2%516 W · 601 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 721 | 44.1%318 W · 403 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 150 | 68%102 W · 48 L | +16.7wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8dc…8d7ebacked No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 64c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked No | 80c | 19.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 141 | 49.6%70 W · 71 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-12?this page
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.