Asian League · resolved market
Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd793b0d1c1633087c6a83087d7d62d1d81d6734693bd26bb57ea22cea731aa26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,389
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 75c | 3,607$2,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.46 | 1,098 | 43.8%481 W · 617 L | -14.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 22c | 892.18$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.92 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 677.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 2,522 | 42.3%1,067 W · 1,455 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 609.58$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 1,254 | 51.4%644 W · 610 L | +9.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 25c | 405$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 233 | 47.6%111 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 373.36$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 1,522 | 54.9%835 W · 687 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bea…f95abacked Yes | 27c | 372.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd790…a24ebacked Yes | 20c | 364.53$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 25c | 335.99$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 401 | 56.4%226 W · 175 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 26c | 307.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.97 | 226 | 56.6%128 W · 98 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 191 | 58.6%112 W · 79 L | +19.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 26c | 282.71$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.47 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Yes | 25c | 260.53$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.43 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 25c | 229.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 24c | 195$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.37 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 74c | 192.91$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 490 | 44.3%217 W · 273 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 10c | 188.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 294 | 25.2%74 W · 220 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Yes | 25c | 125.49$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 163 | 56.4%92 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 25c | 124.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 390 | 58.2%227 W · 163 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d9f7backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 25c | 111.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 345 | 58.6%202 W · 143 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 25c | 111.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d5…2b9cbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 74c | 56.06$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 623 | 49.1%306 W · 317 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3329…a607backed Yes | 25c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 25c | 40.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 23.6%26 W · 84 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 35.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 75c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 478 | 60.3%288 W · 190 L | +15.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 76c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Shenzhen Xinpengcheng FC win on 2026-04-12?No won
- Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-04-12?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.