Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16672e8585e8ede67f37f157aff289d0d1dbdfbbeb0a6085d9c89143c3e436bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,487 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 18c | 1,213$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.44 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 555.53$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.8 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 21c | 494.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.01 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…f805backed Under | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…92e0backed Over | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2846…ab38backed Under | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0859…bac4backed Over | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc9…df11backed Over | 76c | 296.05$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4926…10dcbacked Under | 24c | 296.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…d5a8backed Over | 77c | 292.2$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db7…4288backed Under | 23c | 292.2$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85a1…a640backed Over | 80c | 185$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 79c | 113.92$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 80c | 42.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3033…ffd7backed Over | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8b…738abacked Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.