Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef16a47d334ed750e8b215db860e1c8a6360ecbd0bcefeb1f2faa2215f2c402d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,271 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 3,050$1,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,395.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 51c | 2,917$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,419.41 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6f…6b82backed Over | 55c | 2,898$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,304.08 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 58c | 2,425$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 45c | 2,300$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.03 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 1,789$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.56 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Under | 49c | 1,291$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.73 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 48c | 1,120$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.6 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 56c | 734.38$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.38 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 48c | 629$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.8 | 152 | 44.1%67 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe77f…8793backed Over | 56c | 414.45$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.36 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Under | 43c | 409.19$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.95 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 57c | 350$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4306…618abacked Over | 55c | 322.55$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.55 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…5baabacked Over | 52c | 245.45$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 47c | 231.75$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…ea55backed Over | 56c | 222$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 220.11$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.15 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 60c | 210$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 108 | 63%68 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5f…7b99backed Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 45c | 178.57$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.82 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 44c | 157.23$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 55c | 147.27$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.27 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Over | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 51c | 98.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.02 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 61 | 82%50 W · 11 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 44c | 80.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c1…4364backed Over | 56c | 68.46$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.12 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 46c | 67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Under | 44c | 64.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Under | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 44c | 56.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 48c | 51.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Under | 49c | 51.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 47.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe293…d3edbacked Over | 53c | 47.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 44c | 45.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e72…54f0backed Over | 52c | 42.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.21 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 51c | 39.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.59 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Over | 53c | 37.39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 30c | 36.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Over | 55c | 36.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Over | 56c | 36.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4680…e592backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…591abacked Over | 43c | 31.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +95.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 46c | 27.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 49c | 26.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd50…c0a8backed Under | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x201d…2e13backed Over | 56c | 25.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Under | 43c | 23.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 56c | 23.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 46c | 23.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 47c | 22.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…f954backed Over | 49c | 22.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 53c | 18.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.