Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcdab7e023554536464981640958c040c358885caec58824d8a75b2773697989
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,591 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 24c | 738.06$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 40c | 464.77$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.6 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 60c | 301.72$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 47c | 285.31$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.23 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Yes | 50c | 272.71$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.06 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 61c | 208.74$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.74 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 40c | 135.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed No | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked Yes | 56c | 107.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 40c | 41.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…1fb3backed Yes | 59c | 33.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Yes | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 52 | 67.3%35 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 53c | 27.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 63c | 20.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.