Bundesliga · resolved market
DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x47cfc058bc9ac4d280a15329fd42ea2f9815d9af43291dea5f37ba5a8b7c979a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,036 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe671…a682backed Over | 33c | 10,152$3,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,801.71 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 4,218$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835.38 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 3,126$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,045.54 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 31c | 1,249$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.56 | 86 | 30.2%26 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 78c | 363.73$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 57c | 302.92$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.96 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ad…c898backed Over | 25c | 300$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Under | 36c | 277.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 69c | 213.04$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…5baabacked Over | 49c | 210$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Over | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Under | 67c | 179.42$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Under | 68c | 176.47$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 34c | 150.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.5 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 29c | 142$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 222 | 21.6%48 W · 174 L | -34.2wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…9749backed Over | 34c | 136.81$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.81 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 32c | 120.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.66 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7157…7ba4backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 59c | 94.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4469backed Over | 32c | 72.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.27 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 67c | 69.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 306 | 47.1%144 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Over | 53c | 68.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x289c…79bcbacked Over | 33c | 62.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.02 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 34cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 67c | 54.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 32c | 51.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 62c | 41.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 35c | 33.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 33c | 30.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 147 | 34.7%51 W · 96 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51f…b7dbbacked Under | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…2e2bbacked Over | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +9.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 29.64$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf594…bfc1backed Under | 67c | 26.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 68c | 24.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cc…6b5cbacked Under | 67c | 17.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad57…b8d3backed Under | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 3.5this page
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 2.5Over won
- DSC Arminia Bielefeld vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-1.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
- Spread: SC Paderborn 07 (-2.5)DSC Arminia Bielefeld won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.