Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1671186c66f83b10f9c6378d7ad2053f103cbd5ef1a984cae982e1dd2452fcce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 69c | 407.59$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.61 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 344.71$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked Yes | 32c | 314.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.93 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 75c | 278.41$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.54 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…ca72backed Yes | 21c | 259.11$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.8 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x346c…ec40backed Yes | 33c | 257.11$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 19c | 241$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.53 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 28c | 217.07$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 68c | 201.56$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 31c | 194.02$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 38c | 184.13$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.9 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 47c | 170.11$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.41 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…ef46backed Yes | 69c | 168.41$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.54 | 76 | 65.8%50 W · 26 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 71c | 149.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.89 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 20c | 145.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 44c | 135.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 37c | 122.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 120.41$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 115.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.38 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 72c | 102.32$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 41c | 100.15$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 31c | 99.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.99 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 57c | 93.56$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 44c | 90.42$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 89.91$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 25c | 87.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 86.91$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 17c | 85.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 27c | 83.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 82.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked Yes | 23c | 77.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 76.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.61 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 63c | 75.57$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…eabbbacked Yes | 20c | 73.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.56 | 239 | 23.4%56 W · 183 L | -17.1wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 26c | 67.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.39 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 61c | 64.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 50c | 55.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 27c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 72c | 49.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.99 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 47.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40b…dc70backed No | 69c | 43.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 42.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 30c | 39.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 31c | 39.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 68c | 39.5$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 50c | 39.09$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 70c | 37.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 37.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 35.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaba…dcf7backed Yes | 31c | 34.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 65c | 34.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 32c | 31.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 43c | 31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.67 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 30.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 35c | 29.48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 37c | 27.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed No | 73c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 26.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 25.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes | 78c | 25.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbc60…c377backed No | 71c | 24.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 68c | 22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 54c | 19.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da5…0865backed No | 72c | 15.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.