Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e2b3c44e6417d7150eb2665340395226149b08e5d56032e56377a475fe9be4a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,250
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,958
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,250 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3bb7…2838backed Yes | 27c | 1,136$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.54 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 240.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 77c | 217.07$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.07 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 206.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.77 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 58c | 190.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 48c | 169.81$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35af…8e95backed No | 57c | 168.15$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 77 | 62.3%48 W · 29 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 52c | 139.88$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.63 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 47c | 137$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.9 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 33c | 135.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…2d98backed Yes | 77c | 129.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 113.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked Yes | 56c | 112.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.1 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 40c | 106.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 47c | 105.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd31…0a42backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 126 | 38.1%48 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…b21cbacked Yes | 67c | 99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…41afbacked Yes | 41c | 98.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 61c | 90.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 49c | 87.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 55c | 86.91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.81 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 81.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 64c | 81.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 65c | 79.57$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 30c | 76.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83df…362fbacked Yes | 18c | 74.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 24c | 74.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 51c | 73.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.81 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc86c…2a30backed No | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.3wins | -0.48per pick | 67cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 56.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 55.12$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 43.19$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…3d76backed No | 54c | 42.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 38c | 42.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d44…e684backed Yes | 62c | 41.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 42c | 40.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 51c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.11 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 58c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 37.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 67c | 37.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 55c | 36.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 70c | 35.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 67c | 33.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 60c | 33.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 42c | 32.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8455…501fbacked No | 65c | 32.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 75cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 55c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 56c | 31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 60c | 30.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 51c | 30.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…5c57backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 193 | 38.9%75 W · 118 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked Yes | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 58c | 29.6$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 29.38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 41c | 28.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed No | 39c | 27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb71…3e7bbacked Yes | 63c | 23.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…ed2abacked Yes | 52c | 23.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73dd…1f06backed Yes | 55c | 20.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 96 | 39.6%38 W · 58 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46d7…7c87backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 69cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x39b7…847cbacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -6.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.