Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1678c81a4d5ca2b6f9434266eeb2892a626e908d726d41177bae927deae945ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,758
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 3c | 713.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…7dd2backed Yes | 29c | 368.57$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.14 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 31c | 356.29$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.72 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1734…ddd4backed Yes | 65c | 300$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.38 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 62cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Yes | 57c | 275$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.8 | 259 | 47.5%123 W · 136 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 78c | 265$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.5 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 57c | 233.58$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…dd54backed No | 29c | 204$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +244.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd25b…9f3dbacked Yes | 52c | 198$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.23 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa5…8d6dbacked Yes | 68c | 192.58$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6434…64f1backed No | 32c | 155.36$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3422…180abacked Yes | 71c | 145$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 44c | 131$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.79 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398b…96edbacked Yes | 53c | 120$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 65c | 106.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1f…6500backed Yes | 77c | 104.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 33c | 103.76$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…f8a2backed No | 47c | 102$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked No | 49c | 101.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.48 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…bffebacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 61c | 97.63$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 34c | 90.73$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 63c | 80.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.63 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 23c | 79.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 40c | 73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.67 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…d45fbacked No | 61c | 67.19$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +108.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee42…a1d6backed No | 47c | 66$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…16dbbacked Yes | 53c | 54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 48c | 52.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4b…2998backed No | 58c | 51.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…227dbacked No | 57c | 43.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc1…ba14backed Yes | 67c | 39.7$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…6d22backed Yes | 71c | 37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed No | 33c | 32.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 205 | 56.1%115 W · 90 L | +25.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…0480backed Yes | 71c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed No | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 54-55°F on February 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 47°F or below on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 58°F or higher on February 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be between 56-57°F on February 24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.