Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1686d5c7e840e2f8be58ce2da283fb3d3cb630b38fbc1d3590c6ac970f537776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,746
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d61…3fcbbacked Under | 0c | 10,121$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 60c | 5,137$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,046.49 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 2,576$1,026 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.54 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 40c | 955.46$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.98 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 36c | 822.9$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1891…fd78backed Over | 54c | 808.36$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.04 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd239…2083backed Under | 42c | 690.83$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.15 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 60c | 689.74$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x324c…93d9backed Under | 3c | 596.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 399.5$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 348.34$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.64 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Over | 70c | 299.98$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.39 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 40c | 273.14$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.26 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 177.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.92 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 41c | 169$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 153.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 31c | 95.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 150 | 48%72 W · 78 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 31c | 95.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…b2f0backed Under | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Over | 59c | 72.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…0852backed Over | 66c | 69.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 54 | 66.7%36 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 71c | 60.89$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 50c | 60.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 53.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9db…dd44backed Under | 37c | 51.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 58c | 49.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 59c | 41.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Under | 41c | 39.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a98…3f93backed Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 43c | 25.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 44c | 25.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked Over | 73c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.34 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +13.0wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +72%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 59c | 21.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x858e…a4abbacked Over | 56c | 20.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c9…a454backed Under | 52c | 20.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 71c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.