Bundesliga · resolved market
Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59bbe00ac5f25719de40609ae7c9634c43a434fb0ddad2c9d6c8eb9dcabdbeb3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,428
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,428 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 54c | 9,361$5,051 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,050.87 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 8,349$4,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,103.45 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 60c | 1,921$1,159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$762.14 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 27c | 1,686$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.47 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 864.64$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 35c | 545.01$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.27 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 66c | 533.35$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.07 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Under | 47c | 531.91$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.91 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 75c | 392.49$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.24 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.99 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 17c | 289.81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 26c | 238.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 28c | 183.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.76 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Over | 44c | 166.42$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6641…ceb2backed Under | 71c | 151.47$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +126.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed Over | 37c | 138.03$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 31c | 110.77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 99.72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 20c | 96.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 32c | 88.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd399…4517backed Over | 42c | 81.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 43c | 68.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 80c | 65.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 32c | 60.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b1…812bbacked Under | 53c | 56.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +92%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…122dbacked Over | 53c | 21.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…ee14backed Under | 71c | 18.54$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Under | 75c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 4.5this page
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 1.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 2.5Over won
- Holstein Kiel vs. 1. FC Kaiserslautern: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-1.5)Holstein Kiel won
- Spread: Holstein Kiel (-2.5)Holstein Kiel won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.