Earnings · resolved market
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x168f973e2aa48e5ee9fbc334f99ed0dbd723a8c8a11f4626cd8068c973905a12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,035
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb41c…5bd3backed No | 28c | 452.42$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.68 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed No | 37c | 364.05$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.67 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…21e8backed Yes | 66c | 246.43$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed Yes | 72c | 197$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 67c | 183.17$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 263 | 50.2%132 W · 131 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 72c | 154.7$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.32 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked No | 34c | 140.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 52c | 127.2$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.34 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 61c | 95.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 38c | 81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…0d3fbacked Yes | 65c | 77.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 58c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 579 | 39%226 W · 353 L | -25.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 67c | 50.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -14.1wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c47…2121backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e9…d1f8backed No | 57c | 40.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed No | 39c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…f3dabacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…5630backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec49…5975backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…0cacbacked Yes | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 72c | 15.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.