MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16a4930aa5595e28126b3fd6fbaef2989e95c1f4b82a13caf4026fac687f541c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,903
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,690
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,903 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7bc…6099backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 7,937$4,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,300 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 3,888$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,129.89 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8377…4198backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 2,302$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994e…9cf5backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 1,775$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.92 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 1,600$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Boston Red Sox | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 416 | 43.8%182 W · 234 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Boston Red Sox | 45c | 511$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.16 | 958 | 50%479 W · 479 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 445.11$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.11 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Boston Red Sox | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Boston Red Sox | 49c | 287.74$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.11 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Boston Red Sox | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 146 | 47.3%69 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 198$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 163.61$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.45 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 43c | 139.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.24 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Boston Red Sox | 58c | 131.73$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Boston Red Sox | 44c | 95.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.53 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 37c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Boston Red Sox | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 19c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 43.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 54c | 40.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Tampa Bay Rays | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 36.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Boston Red Sox | 47c | 31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Boston Red Sox | 58c | 30.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…5176backed Tampa Bay Rays | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 435 | 42.1%183 W · 252 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Boston Red Sox | 46c | 22.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.21 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.