Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16c242640973f4bccc85fea98868f0898f01f6cb724d969d5491bb389f6d43d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,389
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,236
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,389 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 15c | 641.03$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa09…ef0abacked Yes | 2c | 577.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 18c | 561.68$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.55 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 402.28$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.05 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 75c | 277.43$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 27c | 253.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 5c | 243.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 27c | 209.18$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 197.1$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 188$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 186$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 14c | 177$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 27c | 160.3$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…b496backed Yes | 33c | 151.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -7.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 75c | 129.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 77c | 126.53$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.55 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6c…a7f5backed Yes | 26c | 116.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 77c | 114.64$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 23c | 109.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1d…c41dbacked Yes | 25c | 108.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 20c | 108.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 72c | 104.47$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 103.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 103$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 14c | 101.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 76c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 71c | 82$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 81.03$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 27c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 24c | 72.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 78c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 75c | 66.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.54 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 77c | 65.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 70c | 63.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 73c | 52.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 24c | 50.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 34c | 48.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 77c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…72c0backed Yes | 25c | 40.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | -10.8wins | -0.14per pick | 63cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 40.62$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4910…bd79backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 66c | 39.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 73c | 36.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 74c | 35.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 75c | 33.4$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 73c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 75c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…88a2backed No | 79c | 20.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 58 | 84.5%49 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…e4bebacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 127 | 58.3%74 W · 53 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed No | 72c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 78c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 67c | 18.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 76c | 18.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 72c | 16.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 73c | 15.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…1327backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 72cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.