NHL · resolved market
Blues vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16e90550f919ca420ed5c6a393b030743eaa2b127f4405d7ce49018e8048c6aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,621
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 43c | 816.05$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.15 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 45c | 599$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.45 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Over | 57c | 580$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.6 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 55c | 542$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.03 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 45c | 234.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.98 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…fb15backed Over | 56c | 228$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.68 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Under | 44c | 190$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a11…db4bbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 141 | 53.9%76 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Under | 43c | 150$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ce…6b46backed Over | 62c | 110$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7227…5285backed Under | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 151 | 46.4%70 W · 81 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1f…0b36backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Over | 59c | 93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 303 | 49.5%150 W · 153 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 41c | 86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.74 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…b5b7backed Over | 57c | 78.95$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…1866backed Over | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 309 | 52.4%162 W · 147 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 42.57$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 57c | 42.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 136 | 48.5%66 W · 70 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 34c | 31.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Blues vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 5.5this page
- Blues vs. Maple LeafsMaple Leafs won
- Blues vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Maple Leafs (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.