TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Blues vs. Maple Leafs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Maple Leafsof Blues, Maple Leafs
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$618,602
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$627,928

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $618,602 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 811 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xef54…d1eebacked Blues52c122,784$63,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,847.7917749.2%87 W · 90 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Maple Leafs50c122,636$61,399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,237.3388151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Blues30c105,000$31,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,499.9942552.2%222 W · 203 L+25.0wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blues49c102,635$50,659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,659.091,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9165…5b98backed Blues49c53,455$26,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,193.0611955.5%66 W · 53 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Maple Leafs49c45,841$22,388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,452.641,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Maple Leafs70c32,458$22,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,587.7638748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Blues49c15,955$7,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,861.7210356.3%58 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Maple Leafs48c15,192$7,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,899.8438844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Maple Leafs48c10,801$5,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,616.5232251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Maple Leafs52c10,500$5,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,08545955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…0772backed Maple Leafs52c10,481$5,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,030.885848.3%28 W · 30 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Maple Leafs48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,20021755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Maple Leafs50c9,525$4,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,762.3631654.7%173 W · 143 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Blues51c8,323$4,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,211.0895049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Maple Leafs53c8,204$4,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,887.9262249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Maple Leafs48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1601,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Maple Leafs51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,92010352.4%54 W · 49 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Maple Leafs49c7,343$3,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,756.742,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Maple Leafs55c7,048$3,897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,150.971,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b8e…5c3cbacked Maple Leafs50c6,969$3,508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,461.2714451.4%74 W · 70 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Maple Leafs52c6,250$3,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00050049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Maple Leafs49c5,978$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,020.981,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08a4…5c3fbacked Maple Leafs48c5,243$2,517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,726.3630551.5%157 W · 148 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Maple Leafs48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,60052050%260 W · 260 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Blues49c4,900$2,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,401.1662951.2%322 W · 307 L+18.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked Maple Leafs49c4,800$2,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4483636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Blues49c4,580$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,242.142,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Maple Leafs53c4,500$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.9919451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Maple Leafs48c4,474$2,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,312.613363.2%84 W · 49 L+9.5wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2ab…f2c3backed Maple Leafs51c4,020$2,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,969.613354.5%18 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Maple Leafs55c4,016$2,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.1186649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbdd…5905backed Maple Leafs51c3,877$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.4955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Maple Leafs48c3,823$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,987.9251452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Maple Leafs50c3,730$1,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,865.0213333.1%44 W · 89 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Maple Leafs49c3,244$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,663.5839047.9%187 W · 203 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Blues19c3,142$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.061,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Maple Leafs48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,56014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Maple Leafs51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47030552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Maple Leafs51c2,966$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.1564242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6282…e8f2backed Maple Leafs49c2,965$1,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,503.081758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick45cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Maple Leafs52c2,863$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.123047.4%109 W · 121 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Blues50c2,807$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.581,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Maple Leafs49c2,803$1,379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.2738738%147 W · 240 L-13.9wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-28.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Maple Leafs48c2,633$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.182,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Maple Leafs57c2,609$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.8429651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Maple Leafs49c2,599$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.1941850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Maple Leafs51c2,500$1,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22575251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Blues44c2,325$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,022.9983652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbcfd…a50ebacked Maple Leafs51c2,300$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x371a…34b0backed Blues1c2,222$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.227450.7%5 W · 740 L-13.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-94.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Blues51c2,205$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.5515954.1%86 W · 73 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Blues49c2,046$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$995.4327143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Maple Leafs48c2,010$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.1892848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Maple Leafs48c1,930$926 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.620147.8%96 W · 105 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Blues52c1,909$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012552%65 W · 60 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4635…9f6fbacked Maple Leafs53c1,893$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.095100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa7f9…86ecbacked Maple Leafs54c1,651$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.6711253.6%60 W · 52 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc30b…1b6dbacked Blues45c1,607$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723.086640.9%27 W · 39 L-5.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Maple Leafs50c1,566$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.941,63650.4%825 W · 811 L-20.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2476…2847backed Maple Leafs53c1,518$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$718.14333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Maple Leafs48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78021048.1%101 W · 109 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Maple Leafs48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78020751.2%106 W · 101 L+10.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Blues50c1,420$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71026946.1%124 W · 145 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcddd…166cbacked Maple Leafs71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Blues45c1,386$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.757453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfca5…7a81backed Blues50c1,350$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffb…df76backed Blues42c1,332$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.49052.2%47 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Maple Leafs57c1,255$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.5399638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Maple Leafs48c1,200$576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62434845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bcb…5731backed Maple Leafs53c1,200$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5643171%22 W · 9 L+5.8wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+38.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Blues49c1,150$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.524845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Maple Leafs53c1,145$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.11,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81cc…26b9backed Blues44c1,100$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948d…409fbacked Blues49c1,041$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Maple Leafs51c1,029$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.211,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9508…b9f2backed Blues49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.85250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1382…b5dabacked Maple Leafs51c1,019$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.45250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63b9…0de2backed Maple Leafs51c1,009$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Blues1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Blues50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-67.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdefe…bdb8backed Blues49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Maple Leafs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.32per pick55cpaid+63.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Maple Leafs49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51038046.6%177 W · 203 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Maple Leafs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5005549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed Maple Leafs50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f17…af1dbacked Maple Leafs51c999.69$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+106.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d36…314bbacked Blues49c999.66$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.8320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc8b…56a5backed Maple Leafs51c989.89$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$485.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f32…1d64backed Maple Leafs51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.391861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6555…b650backed Maple Leafs51c980.18$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb622…9c0dbacked Blues49c979.27$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfa…cd8cbacked Maple Leafs54c962.96$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef6f…dfc0backed Blues47c962.77$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d7…da62backed Maple Leafs52c962.5$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46318840.4%76 W · 112 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5276…74ddbacked Blues52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8422…69f7backed Blues49c958.9$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba5…1082backed Blues50c950$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb95c…46c0backed Maple Leafs53c900$477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4231233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7dd4…2c2fbacked Blues51c860$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.61526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.6wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-44.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.