Other European Leagues · resolved market
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x172dde494007f1afe733a12b45ce8ac89c5285d8f266bd963fe8da7ad79f835d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,308
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,552
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,308 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 4c | 3,958$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.73 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c67…a813backed Under | 79c | 3,749$2,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.29 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 77cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 18c | 2,904$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.05 | 435 | 46.7%203 W · 232 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 20c | 2,900$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.85 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 11c | 1,249$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.55 | 174 | 21.8%38 W · 136 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…d8debacked Over | 11c | 445.09$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…2e72backed Over | 4c | 399.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 20c | 323.55$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 478 | 42.9%205 W · 273 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd277…73febacked Under | 80c | 300$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…f0f2backed Over | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…74ffbacked Over | 16c | 242.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 38cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 21c | 209.6$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 21c | 128$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 1,401 | 29.2%409 W · 992 L | -32.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 21c | 125$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 1,467 | 48%704 W · 763 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 79c | 100.86$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 56.9%132 W · 100 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 27.8%63 W · 164 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 318 | 60.4%192 W · 126 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 21c | 74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 2,640 | 35.7%942 W · 1,698 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…30a0backed Under | 79c | 70.2$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb152…ef4cbacked Over | 22c | 57.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6203…5544backed Under | 73c | 37.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Under | 77c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 4.5this page
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Kasımpaşa SK won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5)Kasımpaşa SK won
- Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-1.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
- Spread: Kasımpaşa SK (-2.5)Fenerbahçe SK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.