Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17309c3516cd986a7d529d9a29682fe056cf4f2c8d101f87f36c842ef0492ce8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sabalenkaof Sabalenka, Potapova
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $182,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Potapova | 4c | 21,103$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.72 | 139 | 34.5%48 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadb4…3214backed Potapova | 3c | 11,000$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.59 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Potapova | 4c | 5,990$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.41 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Potapova | 4c | 5,836$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.43 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Potapova | 4c | 3,868$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.44 | 2,068 | 34.9%721 W · 1,347 L | -44.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Potapova | 4c | 3,424$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.95 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Potapova | 5c | 2,784$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…d000backed Potapova | 8c | 2,072$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.08 | 537 | 52.3%281 W · 256 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7daf…0ec8backed Potapova | 4c | 1,925$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Potapova | 4c | 1,895$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…85dbbacked Potapova | 5c | 1,563$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Potapova | 7c | 1,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 733 | 50.9%373 W · 360 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Potapova | 5c | 1,104$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Potapova | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Potapova | 3c | 838.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Potapova | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 420 | 46.9%197 W · 223 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked Potapova | 4c | 799.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 124 | 39.5%49 W · 75 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Potapova | 4c | 749.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 459 | 9.6%44 W · 415 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…a27ebacked Potapova | 7c | 720.2$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd4…4432backed Potapova | 6c | 700$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Potapova | 5c | 621$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 254 | 28%71 W · 183 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Potapova | 5c | 558.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Potapova | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Potapova | 4c | 499.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 78 | 3.8%3 W · 75 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Potapova | 4c | 499.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 108 | 9.3%10 W · 98 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Potapova | 7c | 486$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1,008 | 46%464 W · 544 L | -19.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eff…ae12backed Potapova | 4c | 443.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 163 | 40.5%66 W · 97 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Potapova | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 421 | 41.8%176 W · 245 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc45…f8e3backed Potapova | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Potapova | 8c | 399.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -9.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…bf48backed Potapova | 6c | 358.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 249 | 31.3%78 W · 171 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Potapova | 5c | 298.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 93 | 4.3%4 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Potapova | 4c | 280$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 182 | 41.8%76 W · 106 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Potapova | 14c | 210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 990 | 44.8%444 W · 546 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588b…8593backed Potapova | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,107 | 43.5%481 W · 626 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked Potapova | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e66…01cbbacked Potapova | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…a505backed Potapova | 8c | 187.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Potapova | 9c | 179.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Potapova | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapovathis page
- Sabalenka vs. Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs PotapovaSabalenka won
- Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Potapova (+1.5)Sabalenka won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.