Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17560e663d9907f3e95d40191070489a4dcb0a342059fcd231466d412a9afd54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 30c | 6,016$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.97 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed No | 77c | 4,128$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.71 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 75c | 4,020$3,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.07 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed No | 30c | 3,208$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.66 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 44c | 2,653$1,177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,476.32 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 32c | 2,580$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.6 | 150 | 64%96 W · 54 L | +25.0wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa0…7894backed Yes | 76c | 1,626$1,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 12c | 1,336$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.58 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf68…3fdebacked No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Yes | 40c | 963.99$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41f…e827backed Yes | 78c | 703.78$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 23c | 592.81$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.29 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd269…8055backed Yes | 26c | 554.73$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.5 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 75c | 423.45$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.55 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed Yes | 23c | 400$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308 | 150 | 24%36 W · 114 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…6307backed Yes | 43c | 345.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +200.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6f…80adbacked Yes | 77c | 312.99$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c53…c9b0backed Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d0a…0809backed No | 55c | 274.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.24 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 45c | 269.28$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.1 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 43c | 192$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b3…f830backed Yes | 78c | 160.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 74c | 130$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 28c | 97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.96 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 90$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4f…c4f2backed Yes | 43c | 85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 27c | 73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…4195backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 72c | 29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded7…1ef1backed Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 74cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2339…e26abacked Yes | 77c | 15.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will Union Berlin vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.