Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1366d5f16bd156aebe327e019919932f926621019f6cec4a2908dff3f830d623
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,620
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,620 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 52c | 2,269$1,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.46 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 64c | 1,371$879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.32 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 50c | 1,273$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.84 | 141 | 57.4%81 W · 60 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 50c | 992.33$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 9c | 813.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666e…aa2dbacked Yes | 46c | 812.91$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 53c | 498.22$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.88 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20da…e704backed Yes | 25c | 486.23$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 38c | 466.41$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.96 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Yes | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 47c | 400$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 7c | 398.08$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 54c | 258$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.64 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 48c | 208.68$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +7.5wins | +0.21per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked No | 52c | 190.91$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.91 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes | 54c | 156$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +5.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…c263backed Yes | 49c | 153.06$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 47c | 124$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 48c | 123.27$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.69 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 54c | 111$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked No | 54c | 102$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba4…7dedbacked Yes | 47c | 60.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa373…918cbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e6…67b5backed Yes | 26c | 39.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 53c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 102 | 35.3%36 W · 66 L | -9.3wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…7081backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2025-08-23?this page
- Will Union Berlin vs. VfB Stuttgart end in a draw?No won
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-08-23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.