Stocks · resolved market
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase October 28-November 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17633aea6b3520e303757023460e24303f8d85f4c9cb5ac8185857dc32db553f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,708
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,708 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c24…ae45backed Yes | 5c | 1,759$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f29…4577backed Yes | 4c | 1,100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 702.43$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -26.8wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8396…9164backed Yes | 4c | 677.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a70…7057backed Yes | 5c | 592.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 3c | 566$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9c…2f1cbacked Yes | 18c | 550.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 479.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 399.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…ede0backed Yes | 26c | 367.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…1312backed Yes | 8c | 283.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0d…ff14backed No | 77c | 221$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…2849backed Yes | 9c | 214.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b87…a487backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x406f…0be8backed Yes | 39c | 193.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb2…deddbacked Yes | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked Yes | 14c | 166.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed4…a52abacked Yes | 35c | 150$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e88…8c08backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a7f…5655backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…96e8backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ec…1551backed No | 53c | 115.87$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba45…87f3backed Yes | 23c | 101.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dba…0c23backed No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 66cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 27c | 79.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 438 | 38.8%170 W · 268 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.