Champions League · resolved market
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Celtic?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x176db1245011014328a95610e0aebe84525458ef6bc31689c5909cba7681e078
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,233
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Yes | 68c | 16,218$11,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,211.69 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed No | 32c | 10,127$3,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,244.45 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 28c | 2,822$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.37 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…d1c7backed No | 34c | 2,230$758 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$758.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 32c | 1,587$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.77 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Yes | 66c | 1,516$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.56 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 33c | 1,500$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.49 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 34c | 1,405$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.64 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Yes | 68c | 1,379$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.14 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a4…cfd0backed No | 35c | 1,114$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 66c | 1,000$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.36 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…44afbacked Yes | 66c | 765.17$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.24 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b88…7b00backed Yes | 67c | 537.31$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x679a…aa00backed No | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 35c | 499.96$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.98 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba4b…6390backed Yes | 65c | 463.15$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c1…4586backed Yes | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18c4…106dbacked No | 36c | 400$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 34c | 399.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3a…3021backed No | 35c | 362.86$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 34c | 344.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe17c…6925backed Yes | 66c | 313.7$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e8…664bbacked Yes | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e58…1bb3backed Yes | 66c | 303.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9125…9b72backed Yes | 65c | 297.08$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac8…b640backed Yes | 65c | 276.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes | 65c | 249$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bff…15a7backed Yes | 71c | 210.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…8de0backed No | 35c | 183.47$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50cc…014bbacked Yes | 65c | 153.65$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db7…b2febacked Yes | 65c | 151.58$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 66c | 151.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…a9c2backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…1392backed No | 36c | 149.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Yes | 65c | 120.78$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.3 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fe…e468backed No | 36c | 119.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…4125backed Yes | 66c | 105.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…6490backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a43…8691backed No | 35c | 97.14$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…dc7cbacked No | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b7…756dbacked No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9885…cb01backed Yes | 65c | 83.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1645…47a0backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0467…be30backed No | 37c | 67.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…5ca8backed Yes | 65c | 63.28$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b91…27dcbacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9646…d205backed Yes | 66c | 57.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a55…9f42backed Yes | 68c | 54.41$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6245…d3c0backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -7.9wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x54a4…f169backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…2529backed Yes | 65c | 45.59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 70c | 42.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…9cf9backed Yes | 66c | 37.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…44d5backed Yes | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…0ababacked Yes | 66c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db2…35eebacked Yes | 65c | 35.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.35per pick | 63cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33fb…48e4backed Yes | 65c | 31.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce7b…7677backed Yes | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0728…7760backed Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614b…797fbacked No | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…c3cbbacked Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1002…1ef5backed Yes | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2b…d259backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d2…ad80backed Yes | 65c | 21.54$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…896dbacked Yes | 66c | 20.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed37…5748backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…8badbacked Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef2…1f9cbacked Yes | 66c | 19.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Borussia Dortmund beat Celtic?this page
- Will Celtic beat Borussia Dortmund?No won
- Will the match between Borussia Dortmund and Celtic end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.