Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17754300c89a08fbaaed5455de4bc6c87344408187575517391317c0c7387186
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,635
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,635 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,957$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.69 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 13c | 340.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 23c | 327.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 19c | 299.78$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 13c | 286.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 19c | 206.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…ef20backed No | 80c | 155.15$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.03 | 352 | 83.8%295 W · 57 L | +39.0wins | +0.11per pick | 73cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 139.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 22c | 133$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 637 | 33.4%213 W · 424 L | +24.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 78c | 127.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 102.5$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 419 | 27%113 W · 306 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf810…e67bbacked Yes | 23c | 88.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 316 | 57.6%182 W · 134 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 70.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,154 | 25%289 W · 865 L | +30.0wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 67.97$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 80c | 63.89$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 22c | 54.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…8625backed No | 78c | 38.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…1718backed No | 79c | 37.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 73cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 34c | 33.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,178 | 40.6%478 W · 700 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 27.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…102ebacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 22 | 81.8%18 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 75cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 580 | 53.4%310 W · 270 L | -26.4wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 67c | 22.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 79c | 19.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 78c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 245 | 70.6%173 W · 72 L | +22.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 76c | 16.42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,154 | 63.3%731 W · 423 L | +28.6wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb4…f81abacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 78c | 15.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.38 | 600 | 32%192 W · 408 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.