Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x653830291afa039227737abbcba6a2842627d1a1f72626fa8c42b5a964c9f3fe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,815
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,815 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 27c | 911.12$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.31 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 72c | 500$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 14c | 443.52$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 5c | 339.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.97 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 303.59$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.36 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb382…f229backed Yes | 38c | 254.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 31c | 221.6$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.43 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 60c | 207.93$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.16 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 70c | 205.58$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.73 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 61c | 176.78$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.29 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 34c | 164.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 164.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 10c | 158$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | +14.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 61c | 153.07$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.08 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 149.39$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.26 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 74c | 145.91$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 802 | 47.3%379 W · 423 L | -29.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.3 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 80c | 135.21$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e7…c275backed Yes | 21c | 131.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 88 | 31.8%28 W · 60 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 70c | 129.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 19c | 125.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 73c | 125$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 5,255 | 49.8%2,618 W · 2,637 L | -163.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 49c | 112.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 40c | 100.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 23c | 100.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 24c | 99.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 31c | 98.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 20c | 98.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 22c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeec7…2fa1backed No | 62c | 79.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.13 | 68 | 64.7%44 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 75.3$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 75c | 74.37$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.34 | 1,697 | 52.5%891 W · 806 L | -42.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 25c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 360 | 32.2%116 W · 244 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 671 | 38.9%261 W · 410 L | +12.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 18c | 66.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 77c | 64.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a76…ce4abacked Yes | 22c | 64.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 62.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 72c | 62.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 10,044 | 44.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L | +257.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 21c | 48.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 62c | 47.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 44c | 45.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 795 | 36.6%291 W · 504 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 31c | 45.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 44c | 43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61dd…cbd8backed No | 62c | 39.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 2,439 | 58%1,414 W · 1,025 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 997 | 57.2%570 W · 427 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 75c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 70c | 35.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 72c | 35.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 50c | 34.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde37…877fbacked Yes | 41c | 34.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 47c | 30.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 439 | 47.6%209 W · 230 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d0…6972backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 235 | 59.6%140 W · 95 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 71c | 29.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 53c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 71c | 26.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 61c | 25.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 255 | 64.7%165 W · 90 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 69c | 25.44$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 57c | 23.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 69c | 23.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed No | 69c | 23.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 20.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 3,201 | 53.6%1,716 W · 1,485 L | -101.7wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 68c | 20.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 20.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 69c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 71c | 14.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.1 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.69 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.