Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48dbdb1b7bcf24403fd978affb1a9c4317dab7ae655efd3bd8fff9155656c4be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 76c | 457.04$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.45 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 17c | 440.02$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 621 | 46.2%287 W · 334 L | +40.0wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a76…ce4abacked Yes | 17c | 304.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 17c | 252.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 77c | 238.03$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 14c | 235.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 17c | 229.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 260 | 38.5%100 W · 160 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 24c | 208.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | +6.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 5c | 203.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 1,000 | 14.8%148 W · 852 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 19c | 153.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 10c | 150.23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 17c | 147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed No | 77c | 144.62$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 140.47$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 136.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 124.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,314 | 54%709 W · 605 L | -26.1wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 11c | 111.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 12c | 106$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 446 | 44.6%199 W · 247 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed No | 78c | 100.15$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,023 | 40.1%410 W · 613 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…24e0backed No | 76c | 99.9$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 412 | 74.8%308 W · 104 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 11c | 98.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 547 | 38.6%211 W · 336 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 96.02$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 95$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 12c | 93.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 15c | 93.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 76c | 89.21$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.98 | 268 | 63.1%169 W · 99 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 24c | 87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 24c | 83.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 30c | 83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 1,065 | 35.1%374 W · 691 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 15c | 80.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 15c | 77.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 147 | 31.3%46 W · 101 L | +14.1wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 80c | 71.93$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 76c | 68$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.32 | 465 | 59.1%275 W · 190 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 25c | 66.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 30c | 64.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 588 | 50.9%299 W · 289 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 63.01$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…6a9bbacked Yes | 24c | 61.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked No | 80c | 61.14$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 22c | 59.17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6b…5c58backed Yes | 24c | 57.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 70c | 51.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 27c | 48.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 447 | 60%268 W · 179 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0022…c966backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 71c | 31.84$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.23 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 27.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 571 | 58.1%332 W · 239 L | -28.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaafb…e81ebacked No | 71c | 23.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 180 | 76.1%137 W · 43 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b18…5ac2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 75c | 19.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 3,810 | 65.8%2,508 W · 1,302 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…65c0backed No | 79c | 13.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.