Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b865f16c31cf2f82e56fbc4fbbc00a53a60cd174902f3db2c264bbcecf932c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,438
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,438 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 1,023$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.62 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 21c | 959.2$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.3 | 629 | 60.3%379 W · 250 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 566.31$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.81 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 23c | 378.62$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.82 | 251 | 58.6%147 W · 104 L | +14.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 25c | 250.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.64 | 1,671 | 37.9%633 W · 1,038 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 22c | 235.09$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.37 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 64c | 229.83$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.54 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 29c | 224.01$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.16 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 213.03$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.45 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 73c | 200$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…5cb9backed No | 75c | 199.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 26c | 195.75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.31 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 24c | 188.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.37 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 176.76$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.07 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 51c | 176.28$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.3 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 140.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 2,201 | 62.2%1,370 W · 831 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 66c | 136.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 309 | 67%207 W · 102 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 70c | 135$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.95 | 2,215 | 74%1,638 W · 577 L | +18.3wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 26c | 134.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.67 | 582 | 47.8%278 W · 304 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc5…c74abacked No | 75c | 133.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 13c | 130.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.01 | 10,952 | 37.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L | +432.6wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +16%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 15c | 123.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.77 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 25c | 118.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 1,936 | 38.1%737 W · 1,199 L | +296.8wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 110.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 41c | 109.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 722 | 33.4%241 W · 481 L | +32.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 59c | 109.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.19 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3990…06bebacked Yes | 25c | 100.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.04 | 370 | 27.8%103 W · 267 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 51c | 93.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.75 | 383 | 46.7%179 W · 204 L | +16.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fdc…9afebacked Yes | 25c | 86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.8 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 17c | 77.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 74.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…c1fdbacked Yes | 28c | 71.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…c771backed Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.57 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 63c | 69.84$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 533 | 73.7%393 W · 140 L | +36.8wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 67.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a9…1706backed Yes | 22c | 66.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…65c0backed Yes | 26c | 65.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 48c | 63.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.14 | 6,905 | 53.1%3,666 W · 3,239 L | +422.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbac5…2ef1backed Yes | 38c | 62.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 76c | 62.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 46c | 58.04$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 57.76$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.91 | 6,166 | 49.3%3,038 W · 3,128 L | -117.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 24c | 57.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.41 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +28.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 31c | 56.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 25c | 48.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 28c | 46.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 46.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 2,467 | 35.7%880 W · 1,587 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 28c | 46.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 26c | 45.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 67c | 45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 386 | 52.8%204 W · 182 L | -25.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 33c | 44.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 467 | 36.8%172 W · 295 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…bb96backed Yes | 28c | 42.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4c…ff26backed No | 64c | 42.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 133 | 51.9%69 W · 64 L | -5.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1d…56a3backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd886…1746backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 31c | 38.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 55c | 36.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 121 | 47.1%57 W · 64 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca4f…9f11backed No | 75c | 35.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c43…1608backed No | 73c | 34.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 75c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 142 | 62.7%89 W · 53 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 76c | 32.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,691 | 47.5%1,278 W · 1,413 L | +48.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 76c | 27.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -19.9wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2f76…bcccbacked No | 69c | 27.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 159 | 26.4%42 W · 117 L | -9.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 74c | 26.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 492 | 59.6%293 W · 199 L | +22.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 78c | 25.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked No | 75c | 21.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 52.6%112 W · 101 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 66c | 20.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 14.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 5,193 | 68.3%3,546 W · 1,647 L | +70.8wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.