Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x178ba9697860510a4015e7e8136918505b93c43b7bb381012072c0ec80dab444
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked Yes | 66c | 757.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.96 | 258 | 42.2%109 W · 149 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd391…093fbacked Yes | 73c | 347.08$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 67c | 298.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 23c | 288.11$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.97 | 544 | 22.6%123 W · 421 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 199.95$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.32 | 2,397 | 79.5%1,906 W · 491 L | +101.5wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 198.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 195.29$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 28c | 167.25$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.24 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 13c | 148.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.16 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 30c | 140$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 26c | 129.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.68 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 110.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8a…a6aabacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 99.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.76 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 97.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 24c | 95.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 89.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.04 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 71c | 89.78$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 28c | 83.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…7edfbacked No | 75c | 83.06$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked Yes | 28c | 80.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.98 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 30c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 25c | 63.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 62.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.59 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 25c | 59.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.6 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 57.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.72 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…fa84backed Yes | 33c | 54.39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 35c | 54.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 32c | 45.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 39.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 31c | 37.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.88 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…8158backed No | 77c | 35.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 76c | 29.2$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 72c | 26.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 1,627 | 37.8%615 W · 1,012 L | +23.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 69c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 67c | 21.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbce0…f095backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 89.3%25 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 74cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…befdbacked No | 72c | 16.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 76c | 16.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 16°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 14°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 15°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.