Lol · resolved market
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1792f34a63933722ad1d839e3574a251cef7f5e331eae5ceff7632c6df49a12d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ninjas in Pyjamasof Ninjas in Pyjamas, ThunderTalk Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1341…0853backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 36c | 2,580$929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$928.88 | 1,827 | 45.6%834 W · 993 L | +26.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc65…96c8backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 1,565$997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.45 | 219 | 39.3%86 W · 133 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 35c | 788.62$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.02 | 1,029 | 52.3%538 W · 491 L | +27.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…5172backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 436 | 40.6%177 W · 259 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 34c | 547.5$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 823 | 52.7%434 W · 389 L | +41.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 65c | 520$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 488 | 52%254 W · 234 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 62c | 500.99$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.38 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 37c | 488.88$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.89 | 2,362 | 32%755 W · 1,607 L | +42.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 66c | 399.82$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.94 | 821 | 61%501 W · 320 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…a520backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 38c | 262.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea0…9928backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 258.67$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.12 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f2…e0c9backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 181 | 61.3%111 W · 70 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…0ac1backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 505 | 47.7%241 W · 264 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…bf55backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 35c | 123.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 179 | 33%59 W · 120 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 62c | 110.12$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 71 | 54.9%39 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa179…8645backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 170 | 38.2%65 W · 105 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b27…add3backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 173 | 45.7%79 W · 94 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 38c | 94.66$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 302 | 55.6%168 W · 134 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 479 | 51.4%246 W · 233 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c20…6fd4backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -12.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…d943backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 38c | 73.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c30…d531backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 65c | 57.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 139 | 51.8%72 W · 67 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 38c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked ThunderTalk Gaming | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -10.4wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x77f3…f487backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 40c | 49.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 57.9%70 W · 51 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 265 | 56.2%149 W · 116 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972c…c2e2backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbeaa…e2d0backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11f2…a7a0backed ThunderTalk Gaming | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked Ninjas in Pyjamas | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…2eb5backed Ninjas in Pyjamas | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 44 | 68.2%30 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5)this page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group PerseveranceNinjas in Pyjamas won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 WinnerNinjas in Pyjamas won
- LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 2 WinnerNinjas in Pyjamas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.