Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17a5417448eb2c394d6cb599ceb78ca337d70f9bd53abd2840b0e5f22d51d9db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,484
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6973…b296backed No | 1c | 888.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 73c | 325.53$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.33 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 63c | 281.13$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.67 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed No | 26c | 264$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 263 | 27.8%73 W · 190 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 17c | 205.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 64c | 188.15$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.44 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1acb…1e38backed No | 54c | 186.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed No | 24c | 176.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 164.06$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 52c | 161.77$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.32 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 46c | 147.64$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 128.58$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 70c | 125.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 50c | 121.3$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 48c | 113.64$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ed…5f52backed No | 55c | 98.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.73 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…b450backed Yes | 49c | 89.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 38c | 87.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 50c | 86.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…bd5dbacked Yes | 52c | 83.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.77 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 66c | 74.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 49c | 74.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 61c | 73.2$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 53c | 71.15$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 70.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 50c | 66.48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…9b05backed Yes | 37c | 63.6$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 51c | 62.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…c294backed No | 52c | 62.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 94 | 62.8%59 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bc…e46bbacked No | 53c | 57.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 46c | 56.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 48c | 49.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d22…245cbacked Yes | 34c | 48.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 50c | 47.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.62 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8082…d196backed Yes | 50c | 47.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.75 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 66c | 45.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked Yes | 78c | 44.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 42.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 49c | 41.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.4 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 47c | 41.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 41.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 39.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 34c | 36.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked No | 37c | 36.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x71ce…3af1backed Yes | 37c | 34.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.52 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…f7fdbacked No | 50c | 31.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 160 | 45.6%73 W · 87 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 50c | 31.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 49c | 30.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4f…ac4bbacked No | 66c | 29.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb5…3bf4backed No | 51c | 28.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 96 | 56.3%54 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…401ebacked Yes | 53c | 28.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 66c | 28.47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Yes | 46c | 28.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35ec…e369backed Yes | 48c | 28.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 52c | 27.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248d…3512backed No | 50c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 50c | 26.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe616…2a15backed Yes | 42c | 26.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…6024backed No | 50c | 25.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 51c | 25.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa55a…0c43backed No | 52c | 25.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 57c | 24.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe00…b480backed Yes | 54c | 24.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +20%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 48c | 21.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 49c | 21.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 80c | 20.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee9c…3039backed No | 53c | 19.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on April 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or higher on April 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.