Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Men's: Martin Damm vs Gauthier Onclin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17b7436100a38cd215d1c29069c80ec2e187d83468677e576b549ae34fb4ba64
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dammof Damm, Onclin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,280
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Damm | 68c | 2,142$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.86 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Onclin | 32c | 1,500$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 72 | 26.4%19 W · 53 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Damm | 66c | 983.41$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.36 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Onclin | 34c | 970.67$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.22 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…a759backed Onclin | 36c | 800$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 339 | 55.2%187 W · 152 L | +18.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Damm | 65c | 636.59$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.01 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9d…e6c3backed Damm | 64c | 583$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.38 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Onclin | 34c | 412$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.26 | 278 | 36.3%101 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Onclin | 31c | 405.11$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.76 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Onclin | 33c | 354.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.34 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Onclin | 8c | 289.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Onclin | 28c | 280.42$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bf…b02dbacked Damm | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 591 | 65.3%386 W · 205 L | -16.9wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Onclin | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Onclin | 30c | 184.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.3 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…7dcebacked Onclin | 43c | 170.7$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.25per pick | 33cpaid | -77%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Damm | 67c | 104$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 1,809 | 43.8%793 W · 1,016 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Onclin | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 444 | 23.9%106 W · 338 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0df…cf9ebacked Damm | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…dc37backed Onclin | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2db…218abacked Onclin | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…fee5backed Damm | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…b96bbacked Damm | 69c | 28.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb02…b642backed Damm | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 63 | 74.6%47 W · 16 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc42…01b2backed Damm | 67c | 15.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.