Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17c39aad358d0498a4ca32c0134d02ffc26e365d8ee5228f1ab1b2e14d6302eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 214$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 209.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.18 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 66c | 180.3$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 65c | 150.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 27c | 126.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.05 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 69c | 125.59$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.96 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 106.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 75c | 85.58$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 24c | 84.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 34c | 75.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7af…0158backed Yes | 47c | 74.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 74c | 71.48$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc38…eef3backed Yes | 41c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 62.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 79c | 55.66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa139…5bc2backed Yes | 39c | 49.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 48.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 72c | 46.59$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 64c | 44.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 38c | 42.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedd6…a9a6backed Yes | 44c | 41.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 45c | 33.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 41c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 31.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 64c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 79c | 27.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 74c | 25.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 65c | 25.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 24.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 63c | 19.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 73c | 18.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 15.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 73c | 14.59$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.